Chemical Week • November 4/11 • Trump win portends drastic shift in regulatory, climate policies

The election of former President Trump to a second term as US president is expected to usher in a drastically altered regulatory landscape and significant de-emphasis of climate change policy in the US. As of CW press time on Nov. 7, Republicans had also won control of the Senate — making it more likely President-elect Trump will be able to implement some of his more drastic campaign promises. The House majority remains uncertain.

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) congratulated Trump and said it “stand[s] ready” to work with the new administration and Congress. “To meet that demand and protect America’s future, we will work with the Trump administration and new Congress to commit to policies that support growing domestic chemical production right here at home,” said ACC President and CEO Chris Jahn. The ACC has been critical of the Biden administration’s implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), calling it “off track” and riddled with missed deadlines and overreach that threaten to stifle innovation, curb US chemical industry growth and undercut its own climate and supply chain resiliency efforts.

Trump’s Agenda 47 website promises to “liberate America from Joe Biden’s wasteful and job-killing regulatory onslaught and [rein] in the out-of-control bureaucracy in Washington, DC.” Trump also vows to implement a regulatory budget that puts a “hard cap” on the cost of regulations to the US economy. “Instead of growing the size and scope of the federal government every year, we will shrink it every year with aggressive cost-reduction targets for each federal department.”

Chemical makers are also expecting a clear shift from Biden-era platforms on the environment, with Trump having campaigned on an agenda of stamping out the current administration’s climate goals and clearing hurdles to energy production. Trump has promised to exit what he calls the “horrendously unfair Paris Climate Accords” — just as he did on the first day of his first term — and oppose all the “radical left’s Green New Deal” policies. Trump also plans to increase energy production “across the board, streamline permitting and end market-distorting restrictions” on oil, natural gas and coal.

Trump is also expected to eliminate elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), particularly electric vehicle credits, which would provide a boost for biofuels but negatively impact lithium production. “However, analysts see wholesale reversal of IRA clean energy tax incentives as unlikely. And support for technologies to lower emissions from traditional fuels may continue to enjoy bi-partisan support,” said S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Trade policy will also be a key focus if Trump follows through on his campaign promises to impose significant tariffs on China and other trading partners. According to the ACC, Trump’s Section 301 tariffs, first implemented in 2018 and kept in place by the Biden administration, affects almost 75% of chemical industry imports. Trump doubled down on tariffs during his campaign, calling for a 20% blanket tariff on all imports and tariffs of at least 60% on products from China.

As the political landscape shifts with Trump’s return, the implications for the chemical industry and environmental policy will be profound. The coming months will be crucial as the new administration sets its course amid ongoing debates about sustainability and economic growth.